The Year Ends with a Happy Note

Abdul Mannan

•  31 December, 2022 12:00 AM

Today, Saturday,  is the last of an eventful year and Sunday will welcome a new year with promises for the people of the world as well for Bangladesh. The year 2022 saw the world drop into an economic morass as the big powers dragged Ukraine, a country that once was a part of the mighty Soviet Union into an unfortunate war with Russia, the larger part of what was once the Soviet Union. The events that made the war more complicated was the entry of another big global power USA into the war indirectly through its NATO allies. Proxy wars have become a new strategy to wage wars against countries of choice by the big powers of the west. When the big powers fight a war for fulfilling their own interest, the rest of the world suffers. That sadly happened this time and that too when the world was struggling to recover from the immense socio-economic damage in the post pandemic period. In a globalized world it is not only the warring countries that suffer, the rest of the world also are affected directly or indirectly. Bangladesh was no exception. With other countries Bangladesh also entered the year 2022 amidst the devastation of coronavirus pandemic with an uncertain future. Incidentally Bangladesh is one of the few countries in the world that demonstrated that even under a stressful condition it could show a positive economic growth hailed by all international bodies including the United Nations.

Though Bangladesh demonstrated its usual resilience as it did in the past while facing national crisis under the far-sighted decisions of its statesmanship like Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina the country’s opposition parties resurfaced after a virtual hibernation for a long period, losing the election of 2008 and 2018. They did not participate in the election of 2014, instead waged a series of violent demonstrations killing hundreds of innocent people and burning down public property worth millions of taka. Their Chairperson Begum Zia is serving a long term prison sentence and the acting Chairperson,  Begum Zia’s only surviving son Tarique Rahman has already been convicted by the Apex Court of the country for money laundering, arms smuggling and corruption. In the meantime Tarique Rahman has surrendered his Bangladeshi Passport and has been granted political asylum in Britain. His entire family is now living in that country and has been granted Residency Permit, which restricts his movement out of Britain. Under the existing law of the country both mother and son would not be able participate in the forthcoming 12th National Election scheduled to be held a year from now. Number of political parties which strangely include left oriented parties and ultra-right wing political parties like Jamaat-e-Islami which have been convicted as a militant organisation by the Apex court of the country and its leaders punished for committing crimes against humanity in 1971 have united together under the guidance of the main opposition party BNP to oust the ruling party through staging  unconstitutional means and install an unlawful so called Non-party Neutral Caretaker Government. To make their demand a bit strong, seven members of the opposition BNP in the parliament resigned from their posts in their parliament recently. Strangely all of these BNP parliament members enjoyed all the benefits and facilities allowed to members of the parliament and resigned just a year ahead from the 12th National Election.

Amidst all these negative news coming from the opposition parties on the street a  leading London based think tank the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) projected that Bangladesh would become the 24th largest economy by 2036 owing to its macroeconomic stability, strong remittance flows and a robust export market. The CEBR disclosed its latest findings in its annual World Economic League Table (WELT 2023) report last Monday, stating that Bangladesh has been among the world’s fastest growing economies over the last decade. Bangladesh is currently the second largest economy in the region, says the report, and will continue to keep its position till 2037 with a GDP size of $1,628 billion at current prices (currently $429 billion). It must also be acknowledged that during the two years of pandemic the remittance inflow suffered heavily primarily due to either loss of jobs by Bangladeshis in their workplace abroad due to the pandemic and rising inflation in their countries of current residence outside Bangladesh. Bangladesh has also been a victim of inflation. In January 2022 the official inflation was 5.86 percent and as the year closed it peaked to 8.85 percent though the food inflation in some cases was double digit and this was primarily due to some unscrupulous businessmen. Bangladesh’s export, especially the readymade garments also witnessed a downward trend as the major importuning countries like US and EU also as they also suffered shrinkage in their economy. Now both remittance and exports have gained momentum and are getting back to normal.

The tallest and most colourful feather in the cap of the current government and for the country was the inauguration of the coveted Padma Bridge on 7th November. The Padma Bridge became a symbol of pride in the last year as the bridge was first mega pride of the country financed entirely by Bangladesh as the World Bank withdrew their commitment to be the lead financier of the project crying foul and corruption which was later found to be a part of a bigger conspiracy to discredit the ruling government spearheaded by some irresponsible civil society members of this county along with some foreign powers. Later the accusation was found to be bogus and false. Currently the bridge has started to contribute to the economy of Bangladesh.

As the year was coming to end the people of Bangladesh witnessed the high profile inaugural of the much awaited Metro Rail in Dhaka, the first of its kind in the country and one of the most sophisticated public transport in this part of the world. Metro Rail happens to be one of the twelve major mega projects undertaken when Sheikh Hasina formed her government for the second time in 2009. Soon another mega project will be commissioned for public use – the unique tunnel in the region under Karnaphuli River in Chittagong. The tunnel is named after Bangabandhu and once the tunnel becomes completely usable Chattogram will become one city with two towns, divided by the river Karnaphuli. Though the country had a built-in capacity to produce about 22 thousand megawatt the country witnessed power shortage for about three months as the needed inputs for power generation was disrupted due to war in Europe and sanctions imposed on Russia by USA accusing them of waging war against Ukraine. Now the power supply has to a great extent regained its normalcy. Soon another Mega project, the Ruppur power plant is expected to be commissioned and the country will be able to produce surplus power which will contribute towards industrialization and agricultural production. Added to it will be the official commissioning of the Rampal Power Plant, a symbol of friendship between Bangladesh and India. The first unit of the 1,320MW power plant is currently supplying 620MW of electricity to the national grid  per day through the Meghna-Mawa-Aminbazar gridline. However, the authorities are yet to fix the date for starting commercial operation. Another star of the twelve Mega projects conceived during the tenure of the current government of Sheikh Hasina is the Matarbari dual purpose Sea Port, off the coast of Moheshkhali in Cox’s Bazar. Funded by Japan, the Matarbari Deep Sea Port was originally built for the Matarbari-coal-fired power plant then the government decided to turn it into a deep sea port. Based on the Japanese ports Kashima and Niigata, the port will be the first deep sea port and the fourth sea port of Bangladesh. The port will have facilities to unload crude oil directly through pipeline to the onshore tanks and it has already done so on a trial basis. The port has also begun to handle general cargo ships in limited numbers while the internal infrastructure is being built. The Civil Aviation Sector will also see a stellar development project, when the Hajrat Shahjalal International Airport’s third terminal goes into operation sometime later next year and added to it will be the upgradation of the Cox’s Bazar airport and converting it with facilities to turn it into an international airport. These developments will change the entire aviation industry of Bangladesh.

Developed infrastructure is a pre-condition for the development of any country and realizing this the current government has paid some extra attention towards development of infrastructure in the country. If the disruption caused by the Covid-19 Pandemic did not affect Bangladesh as it did some of the unfinished infrastructures would have been completed by the year end. However, braving all these odds the Prime Minister has inaugurated one hundred bridges and culverts on 7th November and one hundred highways on 21st December. All these mega projects coupled with the domestic consumer domestic market Bangladesh is set to become the ninth largest consumer economy market in the world through a rapidly expanding middle and affluent class which is projected to grow from 19 million in 2020 to 34 million by 2025 according the a study released recently by the prestigious US based economic think tank Boston Consulting Group (BCG). BCG also in its report projected that Bangladesh is poised to become a trillion-dollar economy by 2040 if the GDP does not fall below 5 percent annually and no news than this could be more refreshing for Bangladesh which has just completed fifty years of independence. Currently the size of Bangladesh’s economy is approximately US$ 460 billion which at birth was about US$9 billion, highly dependent on agriculture. Still agriculture plays a dominant role in Bangladesh’s economy and contributes 14 per cent to its GDP.

All the socio-economic developments that took Bangladesh to a new height in the global stage in the last couple of years can be ascribed to able leadership of the country’s government under its Prime Minister. But still in one place the government has a big and visible role to play which is putting a cap on the growing magnitude of virtually unhindered corruption, mostly by a section of government officials and businessmen. The banking sector needs complete overhaul and shakeup. In certain areas the bureaucracy has turned into a big roadblock to progress and they need to be sorted out and held accountable. That is also true for a section of politicians in the ruling party.  Some members in the cabinet need to be observed closely. There is an invisible glass barrier created around the Prime Minister by the very people on whom she has put all her trust which may prove to be costly. This also happened during the three and half year rule of Bangabandhu and he and the nation paid a heavy price.

The national election just a year away, the current government does not have to look back provided the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina plays her cards well and places the right people in the right place.

Wishing the country full of prosperity and peace  in the year ahead and a very prosperous New Year to all my readers.

The writer is an analyst and a commentator